Video Report: Are US Markets Topping Here?
Elliott Wave Global Market Service - Short Term Report 20th April 2010
There are plenty of reasons why the US equity markets might be close to completing a major topping pattern right now.
A highly bullsih atmosphere prevails nows as is indicated by the trade-futures.com daily sentiment index.com which currently sits at 92% on their daily sentiment index, there are some very long term bearish daily MACD divergences that have continued to develop over the entire rally off the March lows of 2009 that are still yet to resolve.
There certainly seems to be a number of factors converging here that are indicative of a major top being imminent. Not the least of which is a clear elliott wave pattern that is either complete or close to in our view.
Rather than go through the individual detail of each market I have decided to attach to this article a copy our daily short term market video report from the 20th of April 2010 (today) for readers of this article to watch at their individual convenience.
If you would like to receive daily video reports covering the short term elliott wave and technical analysis of the major US markets, Gold Trust, Oil Holders and USD Bullish please visit our service at www.eliottwavegms.com. Further, we deliver video analysis of all major global equity markets, currencies and commodities along with a weekly portfolio stock video report.
If our analysis is indeed correct, once we top here there should be a signifcant decline almost universally across the board from stocks to commodities to most currencies that run counter to the US dollar, which is looking good to us at ths time.
In today’s report we also take a closer look at the gold trust (GLD), the oil service holders (OIH) and finish with a quick wrap up of the action in the $VIX.
For more information and detailed reports please visit our service at www.elliottwavegms.com. We offer a fully inclusive service at only $29 per month and combined with our risk-free no hassle 60 day money back guarantee makes the service great value.
Intro To Technical Analysis For Non-Dummies
There exist today an array of charts, patterns and statistical analyses sufficient to please even a Medieval numerologist. Though many times, it looks and reads incredibly like mathematical tea-leaf reading, most of the regularly used tools are based on serious empirical studies with the markets.
The easiest way to explain what Technical Analysis is may very well be to contrast it with its arch-rival and sometimes partner: Fundamental Analysis.
Fundamental analysis tries to measure a financial instrument (a stock, bond, etc) by investigating factors impacting intrinsic worth. Company earnings, basic industry issues - everything from the entire economy to who sits in the Chief Financial Officer’s chair.
Technical analysis avoids measurements of specific things like assets and liabilities and company or industry details. It looks instead for statistical patterns among historical (both recent and far past) price movements, volume of stock traded and numerous other variables.
Next variables and patterns appear arcane to most but the specialists. Fortunately there are a few basic ones for the savvy but nonetheless merely human.
One of the most basic is a simple bar chart. Used for centuries in one form or another, it comprises the common vertical stick with small horizontal tick marks attached.
The length of the bar shows the price range of the instrument for a recent period - usually the last 24 hours or the trading day up to that point. The horizontal mark on the right indicates the beginning price, the left-pointing one shows the ending price.
A series of these presented across a chart - for periods of a week, a month, quarterly, etc - forms a pattern. It’s that pattern that the technical analyst uses (partly) to predict the way the pattern will continue - i.e. what the price is going to be an hour or a day or 2-3 weeks hence.
Traders who rely heavily on technical analysis are hardly ever long-term players. Somewhat like predicting the rain, a set of data could help you speculate with high probability what will happen in the immediate future. It’s less helpful for judging the outcome 90 days ahead.
Candlesticks - adapted from the Japanese, where they were utilized to foresee rice futures - undoubtedly are a common variation. The difference consists essentially of ‘fattening’ the vertical stick and adding color to show variations between beginning and ending price levels.
Red strips are used to indicate a closing price lower than the previous period, green when the instrument closed higher. Once again, distinct patterns imply - to the initiated - distinct market trends.
Since options, like bonds, add the factor of time expiration different variables to forecast patterns come into play. Also, since as a derivative an option has no intrinsic worth, price and volume changes can (and do) occur as the result of changes to the underlying asset.
A number of of the variables that evaluate these changes find their way into technical analysis charts.
Delta, for example, measures how much an option price rises or falls relative to the change in price of the underlying asset. Theta measures how much an options position gains or loses in a period of time - a day, a week, a month, etc. Vega is a measure of how much a position gains or loses as volatility changes by a specified percentage.
Fortunately, there are software applications that are available that were designed to make it easy for tracking of these and other variables. Algorithms are built in that experts assert indicate thresholds and patterns that accurately signal buy or sell.
Since there are dozens of such choices, featuring hundreds of different variables and patterns, only experience will show you which ones are significant and which ones are mere numerology.
Will the Trend Stop or Continue - Technical Analysis Trading
So you have started to trade and you’ve come up with a stock trading strategy of your own . You have completed your initial technical analysis trading and after careful consideration you have settled on trend trading as your preferred trading style .
You’ll definitely find trend trading a strategy that is attractive . The trending patterns just pop out when you retrospectively look at stock charts. You salivate about catching a beginning trend and riding on through the conclusion of the trend many months in the future. Wealth beckons, success is on your doorstep !
Trading isn’t so easy in reality . You get in on a trend - maybe you are late or maybe you have managed to enter near the beginning of a trend , but you do get aboard. As your predictions begin coming true and you are in this trade, you get a small profit . Then a strong day comes along and then the market stops dead when resistance is hit by the stock. You tell yourself there will be more and you couldn’t move everything in a day anyway and to your position you add. But alas the following day the market opens up , goes absolutely nowhere, and then it starts heading down fast. Because you decided to add to the position you are fast back to breaking even and once you have the orders in place, you have already lost money. What is the deal? How could you tell before it happened that the trend wouldn’t continue and that you should have taken the profit when the market started strong and then paused ?
Here are some trading tips that will help you tell when a trend is going to stop or continue on. If you apply these to your technical analysis trading you’ll be a step ahead of everyone else .
Most importantly: to set your targets use higher time period charges ; look for areas where resistance and support are logical to determine where the market will start and stop its move .
If you are not sure how you can predict where support and resistance will exist in the future , or are uncertain how to coordinate time-frames in your trading , then consider using technical analysis trading course for instruction . One of the best is Drummond Geometry but a variety of valid schools of thought exist .
The second element is that you need is a tool that will help you judge robustness and trend strength . A strong trend will break through resistance or support and a trend that is weak will stop or even go into congestion when it hits support or resistance or it will reverse and move in the opposite direction . If you have the right tool in your analysis tool kit you can predict the more probable action; without the right tool, you’ll be waiting tos ee what happens, and you have a high possibility of getting disappointed.
To measure this appropriately you should use momentum tools and apply the tools to a timeframe smaller than that of the trend you are currently trading … in other words if you’re trading a daily chart, try to pick the low or the high with the trades , then to support the decisions you make intraday, you look at the hourly or half hour charts.
We’ll talk about this more in part 2 of the technical analysis trading series.
Will the Trend Stop or Continue - Technical Analysis Training
So you have started to trade and you’ve come up with a stock trading strategy of your own . You have completed your initial technical analysis training and after careful consideration you have settled on trend trading as your preferred trading style .
You’ll definitely find trend trading a strategy that is attractive . The trending patterns just pop out when you retrospectively look at stock charts. You salivate about catching a beginning trend and riding on through the conclusion of the trend many months in the future. Wealth beckons, success is on your doorstep !
Trading isn’t so easy in reality . You get in on a trend - maybe you are late or maybe you have managed to enter near the beginning of a trend , but you do get aboard. As your predictions begin coming true and you are in this trade, you get a small profit . Then a strong day comes along and then the market stops dead when resistance is hit by the stock. You tell yourself there will be more and you couldn’t move everything in a day anyway and to your position you add. But alas the following day the market opens up , goes absolutely nowhere, and then it starts heading down fast. Because you decided to add to the position you are fast back to breaking even and once you have the orders in place, you have already lost money. What is the deal? How could you tell before it happened that the trend wouldn’t continue and that you should have taken the profit when the market started strong and then paused ?
Here are some trading tips that will help you tell when a trend is going to stop or continue on. If you apply these to your technical analysis training you’ll be a step ahead of everyone else .
Most importantly: to set your targets use higher time period charges ; look for areas where resistance and support are logical to determine where the market will start and stop its move .
If you are not sure how you can predict where support and resistance will exist in the future , or are uncertain how to coordinate time-frames in your trading , then consider using technical analysis training course for instruction . One of the best is Drummon Geometry but a variety of valid schools of thought exist .
The second element is that you need is a tool that will help you judget robustness and trend strenght. A strong trend will break through resistance or support and a trend that is weak will stop or even go into congestion when it hits support or resistance or it will reverse and move in the opposite direction . If you have the right tool in your analysis tool kit you can predict the more probable action; without the right tool, you’ll be waiting tos ee what happens, and you have a high possibility of getting disappointed.
To measure this appropriately you should use momentum tools and apply the tools to a timeframe smaller than that of the trend you are currently trading … in other words if you’re trading a daily chart, try to pick the low or the high with the trades , then to support the decisions you make intraday, you look at the hourly or half hour charts.
We’ll talk about this more in part 2 of the technical analysis training series.
The Secret To Technical Analysis
Technical analysis of the stock market, or any other market such as Forex, futures, is how most traders and investors make their trading decisions. This is as opposed to fundamental analysis which most people more agree is pretty much done as a way of making trading decisions, unless of course you are Warren Buffet!.
You only have to think back to major stock market scams like Enron to know that it is almost impossible for the average, and even very sophisticated fund manager or hedge fund trader to really know what the real financial state of a company is.
Just by reading the balance sheet and other quaterly reports they release gives you a very poor insight into the real health of the company. Whereas the technical analysis charts of the company tend to give the real picture of what the market thinks of the value of the company. In the case of Enron even simple technical analysis told you to SELL when the stock was in the $80-90 range, this is why technical analysis of stocks is so popular.
So what are the secrets to technical analysis?, I’m about to tell you, here are my golden rules:
* Only use 3-5 simple technical analysis indicators
* Make sure that you understand how the indicators that you have selected work, what the parameter settings are and in what market conditions they are effective
* After selecting your indicators and parameter settings don’t mess with them.
The real secret to technical analysis is to get VERY familiar with your choosen indicators, and really this can only be done by watching and studying the market, so that you get to the point that you TRUST them.
The fact is that in any market, for each bar period, there are only 5 pieces of information, the open, close, high, low and volume, yet there are now hundreds of indicators. Most of these indicators are displaying the same information and so are redundant.
For the record my set of indicators are:
* 4 Simple Moving Averages
* Bollinger Bands
* MACD
* Stochastics
But the way I use them is quite special, to learn more about how to become an expert at technical analysis visit:
A767342187
Technical Analysis Secrets For Stock Traders
Technical analysis of the stock market, or any other market such as Forex, futures, is how most traders and investors make their trading decisions. This is as opposed to fundamental analysis which most people more agree is pretty much done as a way of making trading decisions, unless of course you are Warren Buffet!.
You only have to think back to recent stock market scams like Enron to know that it is almost impossible for the average, and even very sophisticated fund manager or hedge fund trader to really know what the real financial state of a company is.
Just by reading the balance sheet and other quaterly reports they release gives you a very poor insight into the real health of the company. Whereas the technical analysis charts of the company tend to give the real picture of what the market thinks of the value of the company. In the case of Enron even simple technical analysis told you to SELL when the stock was in the $80-90 range, this is why technical analysis of stocks is so popular.
So what is the secret to technical analysis?, I’m about to tell you, here are my golden rules:
* Only use 3-5 simple technical analysis indicators
* Make sure that you understand how the indicators that you have selected work, what the parameter settings are and in what market conditions they are effective
* After selecting your indicators and parameter settings don’t mess with them.
The real secret to technical analysis is to become VERY familiar with your choosen indicators, and really this can only be done by watching and studying the market, so that you get to the point that you TRUST them.
The fact is that in any market, for each bar, there are only 5 pieces of information, the open, close, high, low and volume, yet there are now hundreds of indicators. Most of these indicators are displaying the same information and so are redundant.
For the record my set of indicators are:
* 4 Simple Moving Averages
* Bollinger Bands
* MACD
* Stochastics
But the way I use them is quite special, to learn more about how to become an expert at technical analysis visit:
A907156389
The Secret To Technical Analysis
Technical analysis of the stock market, or any other market such as Forex, Bonds, Futures, is how most traders and investors make their trading decisions. This is as opposed to fundamental analysis which most people more agree is pretty much done as a way of making trading decisions, unless of course you are Warren Buffet!.
You only have to think back to major stock market scams like Enron to know that it is almost impossible for the average, and even very sophisticated fund manager or hedge fund trader to really know what the real financial state of a company is.
Just by reading the balance sheet and other quarterly reports they release gives you a very limited insight into the real health of the company. Whereas the technical charts of the company tend to give the real picture of what the market thinks of the value of the company. In the case of Enron even simple technical analysis told you to SELL when the stock was in the $80-90 range, this is why technical analysis of stocks is so popular.
So what is the secret to technical analysis?, I’m about to tell you, here are my golden rules:
* Only use 3-5 simple technical analysis indicators
* Make sure that you understand how the indicators that you have selected work, what the parameter settings are and in what market conditions they are effective
* After selecting your indicators and parameter settings don’t mess with them.
The real secret to technical analysis is to become VERY familiar with your choosen indicators, and really this can only be done by watching and studying the market, so that you get to the point that you TRUST them.
The fact is that in any market, for each bar period, there are only 5 pieces of information, the open, close, high, low and volume, yet there are now hundreds of indicators. Most of these indicators are displaying the same information and so are redundant.
For the record my set of indicators are:
* 4 Simple Moving Averages
* Bollinger Bands
* MACD
* Stochastics
But the way I use them is quite special, to learn more about how to become an expert at technical analysis visit:
A875645387
Bollinger Band indicator to invest in Forex
What are Bollinger bands? It is a technical analysis indicator used in the financial markets, which are used to determine market volatility and relative prices in a determined period of time.
This technique was developed by John Bollinger in the early 80’s. Bollinger was based on mathematical formulas commonly used by statisticians to determine the standard deviations of the data series and adapted for use in the Forex Market. Bollinger bands are used to determine over-bought and over-sold levels.
The use of Bollinger bands is more effective in markets without trend (ranging markets) and it is suggested that it should be applied in periods of 20 days but it may also be used even in periods of 50 days.
Bollinger bands consist of three lines drawn in relation to price action. These three lines are:
• The middle or central band: it is as a rule; a simple moving average and provides information on market trends. From the middle band it is calculated upper and lower bands by one standard deviation.
• The upper band: is equal to a moving average of 20 periods and 2 standard deviations above the moving average.
• The bottom band: is equal to a moving average of 20 periods and 2 standard deviations below the moving average.
How to use Bollinger bands to invest in Forex?
You can use this indicator to determine market volatility and relative prices. You must start tracing the 3 lines in the Forex graphs, which provides you with the indications of when you should buy and sell.
In Markets without trends the strategy is to sell in higher bands and compared in the lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower band will provide you with information on the volatility or market activity. This means that the higher the volatility in the Forex market is, the higher the standard deviation and because of that the bands are a little broader. If on the contrary, it happens that there is less volatility in the market, the lower the standard deviation and as a consequence the bands will be narrower.
On the other hand, if you notice that prices will break through the upper band, in the band that is contrary, we must expect a continuation of current trends.
Calculate the moving average (MA) using the following formula:
MA = (P1+ … + Pn)/n
Pn = Price at an interval n
n = Number of periods
• Subtract the moving average (MA) of each data point (p) used in calculating the moving average. This will give you a list of deviations (d) of the mean:
• Finally, calculate the three Bollinger Bands using the following formulas:
Superior Band = MA + 2σ
Media Band = MA
Lower Band = MA-2σ
It is not recommend using this indicator in volatile markets. But if you decide to use it, you should buy right on the break above the upper band and sell right on the break below the lower band. This is important if you notice that the bands shrink too fast, in other words it consolidate, it is likely to occur a violent break, a moment you can use to buy or sell.
Bollinger Bands provide you with 3 types of signals:
• Contractions (squeeze) means that there is less volatility in the market.
• Expansion (expansion) means that there is greater market volatility.
• 2.0 STDV close : Breakouts
What you should NEVER do?
• Never buy or sell without observing the candlestick patterns.
• Do not buy or sell if it has not detected a clear breakout of the market.
• Do not use this indicator in periods longer than 100 days.
• If prices touch the band alone, it would not mean that you should buy or sell. Never trade without a preliminary analysis.
Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE
Remember that no investment is risk free and the Bollinger Band indicator in Forex will help you most effectively when it is used in conjunction with other tools.
If you would like to have information about Technical Analysis, Please Click Here: Forex Trading
Forex Trading Systems
Forex Trading Techniques : What makes a trading system “good”?
Technical research : In my last articles, I shared that for any Forex trading strategy to be considered, it has to be first, a total methodology ( insert link to prior article ) and 2nd, it must teach express risk management rules. Today’s article on ways to find the right trading method for Forex trading revolves around Technical research. Find out more read my ForexIncomeEngine Review. I think the best Forex trading strategies are based primarily on technical research, without being a hundred percent mechanical or automated.
As you already realize there are 2 first forces acting in the Forex markets : elemental information, which include such indicators as balance of trade info, money supply, rates, financial and economic reports, etc. For additional see this ForexIncomeEngine 2 Report. ; and technical info, which include such indicators as moving averages, average directional movement, stochastics, etc.
So, why should a currency trading strategy be focused technical indicators?
First, trying to trade on elemental information needs you to be available on a realtime bases at whatever hour of the day or night the stories impacts the markets, and, you have to be able to act on that stories before ( predictive ) or at the instant thousands of other forex traders do ( reactive ), otherwise, you’ll have missed your opportunity.
Trading on elementals, as well, is less about the info itself and more on the market’s reaction to that data.
Technical research permits the trader more time to make a smart call.
If you’re interested in currency trading, or have been a little put off by what’s been going on with the markets, then this could be the most important trading video you’ll ever see this year.
Why is that? Simply because after you watch it, you’ll be scrambling to get started trading Forex this way…
At last bringing flexibility and customization to Forex day trading so that anyone can have an “edge”, whether you only have twenty minutes to trade, or if you have all day. Your choice.
This is by none other than Bill Poulos. This is a taste of what to expect in the new ForexIncomeEngine 2.0. Yes Bill Poulos has upped the ant. Not to be content with producing the best Forex trading course of 2008, in my opinion. He come out with even more cutting edge pip pulling methods and advice. For additional info see read my ForexIncomeEngine 2 Report.
Forex Trading Strategies - What You Should Know If You Are Into Forex Trading
If you have tested or do real trading for some times, you must realize that there are many forex trading strategies that can be applied. Each of it has its own advantages and disadvantages, ask for different data and condition, and will show its true potential in particular currency pair.
Basically, forex trading strategies can be divided into two major:
1. Technical analysis
This strategy relies heavily on data, mainly charts from previous market movements to forecast the future direction of prices. There are various methods to read this data such as candlestick charting or Elliot wave, but basically they search for patterns in the chart for a given time and looking for relationships between various indicators such as price and volume. You need the right tool for this, learn about it at technical analysis software.
This strategy is preferred by most traders and they use it in daily basis to decide the best transaction available currently. Usually, each trader has their own way to interpret the data by using various variables and designed specifically for a particular market he is in. These difference in methods make them have different winning rates even though they can access the same data; the trader with a better method will get more profits.
2. Fundamental analysis
This strategy relies on various economy factors such as overall state of economy, interest rates, production, earnings, and management. For example: some news such as Non Farm Payroll or Wholesale Inventories can affect the market greatly. If you can analyze the market movement before the news out, you can secure your position and wait for the profit.
Some times, some people with high influence in economy state will gather for an important meeting. For example, a meeting about deciding a new interest rate or inflation will have great impact in the currency values. Usually it will be already too late to enter the market when the result has been announced, so you have to use the current data to analyze and guess the result before.
Fundamental analysis use is not limited to short term trading, it can also applied on long term forex trading strategies. This is rather complex, but basically you predict the future trends of the market based on how the new policy will affect the market in long run.
There are also other methods in forex trading strategies aside from technical and fundamental analysis such as Scalping.
Scalping
The aim of scalping is making a series of continuous small profits where those profits will be accumulated as big profit at the end of the day. A scalper will need to devote his time to keep watch of his open position, but it is easier now with the use of automated trading software. For example: When a trader who using scalping strategy sees a sharp movement in the market, he will use the opportunity to make profits even if it just 10 pips.
Not all traders can do scalping since it demands patience, quick decisions, and no emotion involved. A scalper will execute his strategy with strict discipline even if he notice opportunity to get more; he will make an exit as planned, gain small profit, and move to the next order. Scalping can be very tiring and hard for a human trader, but not for a robot; read about the best scalping robot at FAP Turbo Review.
If you are still unfamiliar with forex and looking for a suitable forex trading strategies then I suggest learning technical analysis first, it is the basic of almost all strategies. Another alternative: just go with a proven system, check it at best trading system.